IGD has identified four key trends set to shape the grocery sector in 2026.
Its latest European channel forecasts predict the grocery market will grow at 3% Compound Annual Growth Rate to £297bn by 2030, with supermarkets remaining the largest channel followed by convenience.
Online is expected to be the fastest growing channel. The UK “leads” the European online grocery market, with over a tenth of all grocery sales occurring through this channel, according to IGD.
“Retailers and suppliers should study this leading market for best practices and inspiration on how to successfully expand and gain market share in an increasingly digital landscape,” said Sneha Haria, insight manager at IGD
Affordable and accessible
As economic pressures persist, value will remain a top priority. Shoppers will seek products and services that deliver quality at a fair price, balanced by the growing expectations for instant gratification.
Shoppers are remaining cautious in their spend but still expect quality and convenience. They’re savvy, experienced, and expect affordable options that don’t compromise on quality or ease.
Elevated experiences
In a world of choice, experience is an increasingly important differentiator. While price still matters, shoppers will be drawn to retailers and brands that offer something memorable, creating opportunities to build deeper emotional connections.
These connections drive trade-up, especially as a substitute for out of home occasions. Provide personalised deals and an elevated in-store experience to enable this.
Sustainability simplified
Shoppers expect government, retailers and brands to lead on sustainability. Making sustainable choices visible and their benefits clear will be key to driving engagement with shoppers.
Shoppers expect leadership, not complexity. They need help to make sustainable choices. Sustainability feels out of reach for many shoppers. With time and money tight, they want retailers and government to lead the way.
Health as a lifestyle driver
Living healthily is evolving from a goal to a way of life. Health and wellness will be increasingly integrated into everyday choices. Shoppers will look to retailers and brands to help make informed purchase decisions.
Health is no longer a niche goal, it’s a lifestyle aim for most shoppers. Shoppers want simple, clear guidance and products that support their evolving needs.
Alex Rowberry, senior insight analyst at IGD, said retailers and brands have a lot to contend with in 2026: ”Meeting the demands of an evolving regulatory landscape while satisfying shoppers’ expectations for value, convenience and wellbeing will define success in the year ahead.
”Despite a challenging operating environment, there is reason for optimism, with pockets of growth still emerging across the grocery retail market.”
Convenience retailers to shift focus on immediate consumption in 2026
According to IGD’s Global Retail Trends 2026 report published last month, convenience retailers are to shift their focus to food and drink designed for immediate consumption next year, reducing space for take-home groceries.
IGD predicts that specialist convenience retailers will modify their formats and assortments to meet the demand for “out-of-home calories”.
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