The convenience market is tipped to grow 4.2% in 2024, reaching a value of £49.4bn, according to new research from Lumina Intelligence.

In its latest Convenience Market Report, Lumina Intelligence predicted that “robust growth” is forecast to be driven by stronger volumes with more financially confident consumers following improvements to household spending power.

It expects food to go is a lever of growth with store and ranging developments including meal deals, hot counters and brand partnerships.

Within food to go as a mission, the report highlighted how breakfast and lunch occasions are driving growth through a reduction in travel disruption and recovering tourism. It also revealed chilled foods, frozen foods and tinned & packaged as notable growth areas in terms of purchase share in 2024.

Symbol group presence

Lumina Intelligence added that symbol groups are forecast to account for 38% of the convenience market value in 2024F – up +0.8ppt versus pre-pandemic, and that the segment is set to overtake independents in share of outlets by 2027.

Those three years are expected see more consistent growth, with the sector forecast to be worth £54.6bn by 2027, driven by demand for local shopping, food to go and low-ticket treating by consumers.

The report highlighted how Booker, Bestway and Spar are focused on driving value credentials through own label ranges to compete with the multiples. However it did flag the growing multiple presence in the convenience channel, with Morrisons Daily and Asda Express expected to lead outlet growth.

Retailer concerns

Its research also showed that Inflation, energy costs and crime were three of the top concerns in the sector, and that these challenges have resulted in 18% of retailers postponing investments in their businesses. It also found that delivery usage by retailers has risen 2ppts in the past year, driven by time and cost-saving concerns, as well as access to a wider product range.