Looking ahead to 2026, the independent sector has a real opportunity to lead the next phase of growth in grocery. The fundamentals are clear: value will remain the primary driver of choice, but value in its broadest sense and not simply the lowest price.
We expect strong, well-executed in-store promotions to be absolutely critical, giving shoppers clear reasons to visit and to spend more when they do. Own label will continue to play a central role in this value equation. By 2026, the most successful independents will be those that have invested in own-label ranges that deliver both affordability and quality.
We anticipate a continued reduction in eating out, which places convenience stores in a strong position. Independents are uniquely placed to win by offering credible dine-in and tonight’s-tea solutions, supported by premium own-label ranges that allow shoppers to enjoy small luxuries, either through restaurant quality meals at home or as a trade up treat.
Shopping behaviour will continue to evolve as we’re seeing fewer trips but larger baskets. Great in-store standards will be non-negotiable: visually appealing stores, outstanding fresh food offers and clearly communicated promotions will be essential to converting footfall into basket spend.
In short, 2026 will reward retailers who are bold on value, disciplined on standards and agile in responding to changing missions. And independents can really differentiate by combining speed, quality and relevance to local needs.”
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