Total till sales at the UK’s major supermarkets grew +3.3% in the last four weeks ending 21 February, according to new data released today (4 March) by analysts NielsenIQ (NIQ).
Despite this, NIQ data shows the unit growth declined from January (-0.8% from -0.6%), which it said was indicative of continued pressure on shopper wallets.
Inflation has continued to ease, however shoppers are purchasing less and altering their buying habits as consumer demand across all channels remains unpredictable.
In addition, the impact of a decline in confidence was felt by food retailers relying on shoppers spending more around the key calendar events during this period - including half term, Valentine’s Day, Pancake Day and the run up to Chinese New Year.
As well as shoppers spending £42m on rice, grains and noodles, shoppers also purchased more accompaniments to make up a celebratory Chinese New Year meal occasion, spending £6.8m on oriental cooking sauces (+10.9%) and £3.4m on fresh savoury snacks (+32%).
As part of the seasonal dine-in deal offers, shoppers spent £58.5m on own label fresh ready meals (+3.4%) of which 45% were premium own label and an attractive alternative to eating out.
Also, during the week of Valentine’s Day, shoppers harnessed the convenience and immediacy of treating loved ones by using rapid delivery, with this channel having a 22% share of online chocolate confectionery sales for the Valentine’s Day weekend.
For the first time in over a year, NIQ’s data shows a dip in the frequency of shopping, perhaps not helped by wet weather, but a growth in the number of items in the basket helped by eCommerce.
In fact, 35% of all growth in FMCG sales since the start of 2026 has come from eCommerce. As such, it remains the fastest-growing channel in terms of value sales growth and continues to increase its market share, increasing to 14.2%.
The gap between own label unit growth (+1%) and branded unit growth (-2.2%) continues to widen, with 15% of shoppers saying they’re saving money by switching to own label products.
Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NIQ, said: “Many retailers focused on attracting shoppers with a choice of dine-in deals to capture a bigger share of spend at out-of-home channels, with premium offers such as 2three courses for two for £25’ setting a new and attractive price point compared to eating out.
“In fact, there was a small increase in basket size in the last four weeks and whilst it is too soon to say if this is a turning point in shopper behaviour, these big events encouraged shoppers to spend more and it’s possible that some are bringing some spend forward to help manage budgets ahead of Easter.”
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