England’s first World Cup game sees 6% shoplifting and 20% store violence rise

New data shows England’s opening World Cup match against Croatia on 17 June triggered a marked uptick in shoplifting and violent incidents across UK stores.

According to new data from SAI One Platform, which analyses insight from more than 1,000 UK retail locations and inputs from over 20,000 cameras every day, theft levels increased by 6% on the daily average, while violence up by 20%.

Despite the sizable revenue opportunity, with the World Cup forecast to deliver a sizeable sales boost, increased footfall and emotionally charged fans are creating additional pressures on physical retail, from theft incidents to operational burden.

Store instances peaked between 12pm to 1pm - up +8% on the daily average - and with the late kick off at 9pm, larger format locations saw the biggest rise, up 7%.

The impact of in-store theft was most keenly felt in the West Midlands, which saw a 25% spike, followed by Northern Ireland (up 11%).

This trend was also mirrored in the lead up to Scotland’s first World Cup match against Haiti on 14 June. While traditional stores were closed by the time the match aired, retailers experienced a peak in shoplifting incidents on 13 2026 between 2pm to 4pm - up by 13%.

SAI’s data also showed that, as well as an uptick in shoplifting and violent incidents, UK stores also faced an increased operational burden, with store triggers and alerts rising by 5% in the lead-up to both England and Scotland’s first group stage matches.

Chris Bell, head of marketing and insight at SAI, said of the results: “With commercial opportunity also comes operational complexity - and that becomes even more pronounced during major sporting events, like the World Cup.

“With rising footfall, fan excitement reaching fever pitch and emotions running high, those pressures can quickly spill over into store environments, driving increases in theft, safety incidents and wider operational disruption.”

Wider analysis by SAI, examining theft and operational performance across England’s previous nine international fixtures, showed that match results have a significant effect on stores.

It showed that on non-winning match days, retail theft incidents rise by 13.4%, while operational triggers also increase by 17.8% when England draw or lose - more than double the volume seen on winning match days (7.6%).

These patterns are expected to become even more pronounced as the World Cup continues. Based on historical performance patterns and previous England fixtures, should England progress to the Quarter Finals, shoplifting incidents are forecast to rise by an average of approximately 26%, particularly around large-scale fan zones, pub districts and convenience-led retail locations.

“As the World Cup progresses, sales opportunities build, but so too do the pressures on the store estate. Retailers need to be able to anticipate and respond to those pressures, maintaining visibility across their stores and reacting quickly as conditions change, to ensure the World Cup doesn’t become an operational own goal,” Bell added.