Researcher NielsenIQ (NIQ) has this week released what it’s calling its Inflation Barometer, a monthly tracker across five Western Europe markets – France, Great Britain, Germany, Italy and Spain – designed to help retailers and manufacturers understand how inflation is evolving across Europe’s largest grocery markets and how shoppers are responding.
The first edition reveals that while inflation across Europe’s FMCG sector remains relatively contained overall, significant differences persist between countries.
For example, Great Britain recorded the highest FMCG inflation across the five nations, at +2.3% - well above the European average of +1.1%.
The monthly Barometer also tracks department-level inflation, price elasticity, and how shoppers are reacting to inflation to manage higher grocery costs, including buying more on promotion, switching to cheaper products or reducing purchase volumes.
It also shows that food and beverage inflation remains widespread, led by non-alcoholic drinks. These products recorded the highest inflation (+4.4%), followed by confectionery and snacks (+2.8%) and frozen food (+2.7%).
In contrast, homecare and paper products are in deflation down -1.1% and -0.9% respectively.
Inflation slowdown
Benjamin Cawthray, client director at NIQ, said: “The first edition of the Inflation Barometer reveals a slowdown in FMCG inflation across Western Europe’s largest markets. By May 2026, this inflation had slowed to +1.1%, reaching its lowest level of the year as pricing pressures eased across most markets.
“The picture varies significantly by country. Great Britain remains the clear outlier, with FMCG inflation holding above 2%, while France has moved back into deflationary territory. Across continental Europe, a growing gap is emerging between FMCG inflation and broader consumer inflation, suggesting that supermarket pricing is no longer moving in line with wider economic trends. Shopper behaviour reflects these changing conditions.
“By analysing changes in promotional purchasing, retailer and brand choice, private label engagement, category participation and purchase volumes, the Barometer uncovers the key behaviours shaping FMCG growth across the five markets. This provides critical context to inflation trends, revealing how consumers are adapting their spending decisions in response to changing market conditions.
“The findings highlight how inflation may be converging at a regional level, but shopper responses and category dynamics remain highly market specific, creating different opportunities and challenges for manufacturers and retailers across Europe.”
You can view the barometer here.
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