The UK convenience market is forecast to grow from £48.6bn in 2026 to £54.9bn over the next five years, according to IGD analysis.
However, it warned that declining tobacco and vape sales continue to mask stronger performance elsewhere in the channel, with forecast Compound Annual Growth Rate rising from 2.5% to 3.4% when tobacco and vape are excluded.
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IGD also revealed that UK convenience sales fell 1.2% in the first half of 2026 but excluding tobacco and vape, the market grew by 0.7%.
While a 10.6% decline in tobacco and vape sales remains the biggest drag on H1 2026 performance, the channel also faces broader challenges.
Commenting on the analysis, Patrick Mitchell-Fox, insight partner at IGD, said: “H1 2026 represents a historic low point for convenience market performance in recent years. While 11 of 17 categories recorded growth, only five grew by more than 2%, underlining just how difficult meaningful growth has become across much of the channel.”
IGD identified categories and shopper missions that continue to generate meaningful growth. Soft drinks generated the largest value gain of any category in H1 2026, adding £99m in sales, while chilled foods added a further £64m.
Meanwhile, as the category share of tobacco and vape has fallen to 15.4% in 2026, alcohol has remained comparatively stable at 15.1%. If these trends continue, IGD forecasts alcohol could overtake tobacco and vape as the channel’s largest category as early as 2027. Such a crossover would reflect a broader shift in the channel’s growth drivers.
IGD expects any convenience growth to come from categories associated with food-led missions, particularly food-to-go, chilled food and impulse products.
“For years, the industry has searched for a single category to replace tobacco, but the evidence suggests future growth is emerging across a combination of food, drink and convenience-led missions that are steadily reshaping the market,” added Mitchell-Fox.
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