A climate risk model launched by the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) reveals that the UK food system will be exposed to £2.6bn in additional food costs if current food practices continue, driven by inflation and volatility.
The model, developed with consultants EY, addresses the mounting challenges climate change presents to the UK food system.
Its purpose is to inform decisions on investment, foster collaboration, and shape policy efforts to secure the nation’s food supply through to 2050. Offering clear, practical insights for everyone involved in the food supply chain, the assessment marks an initial step towards building an open-access tool that empowers organisations to identify their exposure and respond effectively to climate-related risks.
Among the findings, the assessment identifies that imported horticulture is at the greatest risk. At present, the UK is heavily dependent on imports of fruit and vegetables and these are commodities most vulnerable to climate change. Citrus, banana and tomato face the greatest risk.
It also reports that dietary shift with current sourcing could bring risk. Transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets can offset some risks, but increased fruit and vegetable consumption from current supply sources adds risk to an already vulnerable category.
”Building resilience is not only vital for the environment but also a commercial necessity.”
Sarah Bradbury (below left), chief executive at IGD, said: “The decisions made today across businesses, government and consumers will shape the UK food system’s resilience and success for the future. Building resilience is not only vital for the environment but also a commercial necessity. With growing volatility and scarce resources, ensuring a reliable food supply will provide a key competitive edge.”
Climate change is already reshaping the UK food system, with record-breaking heat, persistent flooding and water stress disrupting yields and driving up costs. The challenges facing the sector are unprecedented and they will intensify in the years ahead.
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